In the northern hemisphere, fall is right around the corner. And just like the changing colors of the leaves and the cold nip in the air, the arrival of pumpkin-spice flavoured food products and merchandise feels inevitable.
In 2022, Starbucks, the first American coffee brand to promote pumpkin spice lattes, launched the popular drink on August 30. This year, it happened on August 24, while rival coffee chain Dunkin’ Donuts launched its own version on August 16.
The creeping drop dates have raised questions about whether it’s OK to promote a fall-themed drink in the summer, while underlining just how popular pumpkin spice lattes really are. But is the 20-year reign of the PSL starting to wane?
Where does the obsession with pumpkin spice stem from?
To be clear, the pumpkin spice in pumpkin spice lattes has nothing to do with the vegetable itself. The seasoning, also referred to as pumpkin pie spice, is a blend of cinnamon, nutmeg, cloves, ginger, and occasionally allspice.
It wasn’t until 2015, after food blogger Vani Hair, also known as Food Babe, began putting pressure on Starbucks to reveal the contents of its ingredients, that the brand started to use real pumpkin in its drink, adding a pump of pumpkin puree.
But the real origin story begins in 2003, when Peter Dukes, then-director of espresso Americas for Starbucks, was leading a research and development meeting to come up with a new fall drink.
The coffee chain had already introduced seasonal drinks like eggnog lattes and peppermint mochas, and pumpkin pie was the next on the list. The R&D team famously ate pumpkin pie and drank espresso to finetune the flavours in the room.
Fast forward to this year, and Starbucks is celebrating the 20th anniversary of the pumpkin spice latte with a specially curated menu at all six Starbucks Reserve stores in the US.
For a limited time, Starbucks Reserve is offering a pumpkin spice-themed menu of beverages and artisanal food items, from the OG drink, to a pumpkin spice whiskey barrel-aged iced latte, pumpkin spice espresso martini, and pumpkin spice cake.
How has the pumpkin spice trend stood the test of time?
As pumpkin spice lattes have grown in popularity, so too have products like pumpkin-spice-flavoured lip gloss and hummus.
According to data collected by audience insights, data, and analytics company NielsenIQ, in the 12 months to July 29, US sales of pumpkin-flavoured products reached US$802.5 million, marking a 42 per cent increase from the same period in 2019. But when looking at the unit sales of pumpkin spice drinks in particular, NielsenIQ found that they dipped 1.5 per cent year-over-year, after flatlining the year before.
“Merchandise for the signature drink this year hasn’t been as popular, with the number of pumpkin spice latte apparel available on US retailers’ sites dropping 24 per cent versus the previous year,” a representative from the retail intelligence company Edited, told Inside Retail.
As Edited pointed out, the hype around pumpkin spice lattes has given way to numerous other food-focused aesthetics or cores that are currently dominating social media, such as the “tomato” and “strawberry girl” trends.
“While the pumpkin spice latte may be falling out of favour, inspiration from winter beverages has emerged as frontrunners for Fall/Winter 2023 fashion and beauty trends,” Edited said. “On TikTok, #lattemakeup clocked 151 million global views in the past month. At the same time, hot chocolate hues are a trending fall shade and featured prominently at Copenhagen Fashion Week, indicating its longevity into spring 2024.”
Will there ever be another pumpkin spice latte?
Against the backdrop of changing consumer tastes and preferences, a representative from Starbucks shared that the brand is continuing to develop new pumpkin-inspired drinks, as well as other drinks to capture the attention of its growing Gen Z audience base.
“In 2019, Starbucks introduced the Pumpkin Cream Cold Brew as customer interest in cold beverages began to take hold. This year, Starbucks welcomed the new Iced Pumpkin Cream Chai Tea Latte to the fall menu and introduced pumpkin to select Starbucks Reserve locations, such as the Starbucks Reserve Roasteries, for the first time,” the spokesperson said.
According to Starbucks, cold drinks now make up the majority of its beverage sales, and bringing a new generation of customers into stores.
“Specifically, Iced Shaken Espresso is resonating with our Gen Z customers to such an extent that it has become the fastest-growing product category in our US company-operated stores, growing 50 per cent year-over-year, more than doubling year-to-date and importantly, creating new customer occasions in the midday and afternoon.”
But does any drink — cold or otherwise — stand a chance of achieving the cult status of the pumpkin spice latte? The odds are low.
The introduction of social media apps like Instagram and especially TikTok in the past 20 years means that there are simply too many influencers promoting various trending items, like espresso martinis and dalgona coffee, for a singular drink to stand out in the mix.
While these new drinks may be receiving a notable amount of attention, it is highly unlikely that any of them will be as culturally significant as the pumpkin spice latte once was.
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